Impact of the conflict in Iran on air freight: routes, capacity, and logistical challenges

The conflict in Iran is generating new tensions in international air transport, directly affecting one of the world’s main logistics corridors: connections between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. In a context where airspace stability is key to ensuring the continuity of global trade, intermittent restrictions and closures in the region are forcing airlines to redesign routes, adjust capacity, and rethink their operations.

Since the beginning of the conflict, strategic hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have seen their usual operations disrupted. Flight cancellations, rerouting, and operational uncertainty have led to an estimated reduction of between 13% and 18% of global air capacity at certain times, directly impacting transit times and cargo space availability.

In the words of Rubén Mascaraque, Corporate Air Freight Product Manager at TIBA:

“The reduction in capacity is evident and, although a critical bottleneck is not yet apparent, it will be key to monitor how the conflict evolves in order to react swiftly in the coming weeks.”

Reduced capacity and rising costs in air transport

One of the most immediate effects of the conflict has been the decrease in available capacity. The need to avoid certain areas has forced airlines to operate longer routes, increasing fuel consumption and limiting cargo volume due to weight restrictions.

This operational shift not only leads to higher costs but also reduces efficiency across the logistics chain. At the same time, delays are becoming visible, although a generalized level of congestion has not yet been reached. The evolution of this trend will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and the stability of the region’s airspace.

New routes and alternative hubs in the global logistics map

The reconfiguration of routes is another major impact of the conflict. Due to restrictions in the Middle East, airlines are diverting operations to alternative corridors through Central Asia, strengthening the role of hubs such as Istanbul and Baku.

These locations, which had already gained relevance following restrictions linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are now consolidating their position as key nodes to maintain intercontinental connectivity. Turkey, due to its geographical position and operational capacity, acts as a bridge between Europe, Asia, and Africa, while Azerbaijan is emerging as a Eurasian logistics hub that helps absorb part of the diverted traffic.

Most affected sectors: pharma, perishables, and e-commerce

The impact of the conflict is not uniform and varies depending on the type of goods. Sectors such as healthcare or pharmaceuticals and perishables rely on very specific transport conditions, such as temperature control and rapid delivery, limiting their ability to shift to alternative logistics modes.

In these cases, air transport remains essential. Other sectors, such as e-commerce and technology, are also affected, mainly due to rising costs and longer delivery times. Overall, the situation highlights how critical air transport remains for certain market segments.

Limitations of cargo flights amid the decline of belly cargo

Although it may seem like a natural solution, increasing cargo flights is not enough to compensate for the reduction in capacity. More than 60% of global air cargo is transported in the belly of passenger aircraft, meaning any disruption to this type of operation has a direct impact on the system.

Cargo flights, despite having grown in recent years, cannot fully absorb this additional demand and also involve higher costs, limiting their use to more urgent or higher-value goods.

Outlook: increasing pressure on the global logistics chain

Although the system is still absorbing the initial impact, there are signs pointing to a possible intensification of tensions in the coming weeks. The gradual accumulation of delays, increased demand at alternative hubs, and a potential shift of cargo from maritime to air transport could generate additional pressure on available capacity.

Moreover, even in a stabilization scenario, the recovery of operations would not be immediate. Restoring routes, frequencies, and service levels will take time, prolonging the effects of the conflict beyond its direct resolution.

In this context, air transport once again demonstrates its ability to adapt to complex scenarios. The combination of alternative routes, the use of emerging hubs, and the development of intermodal solutions allows the flow of goods to continue, albeit under less efficient conditions.

Beyond the immediate impact, the conflict in Iran highlights the need for resilient supply chains capable of quickly adapting to an increasingly uncertain global environment.